According to predictions by artificial intelligence (AI) based on existing climate models, the temperature rise will break through the 1.5-degree barrier much faster in most regions of the world than previously assumed.

Scientists from Stanford, Colorado State, and ETH-Zurich universities simply wanted to know whether artificial intelligence could refine and improve current climate models. They unleashed an advanced AI model on ten global climate models to make better predictions for individual regions of the world.

Two and even three degrees
However, the model concludes that all 34 regions studied will likely exceed the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040 or possibly even sooner. Of those regions, 31 will even see two degrees of warming. And 26 areas are already looking at three degrees of warming by 2060.

Specific regions such as South Asia, the Mediterranean and Central Europe may reach these thresholds sooner, increasing the risk to ecosystems and communities there even more quickly.

“It’s important to focus not just on global temperature increases but also on specific changes in local and regional areas,” says Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor of geography at Stanford University. “By better predicting when regional warming thresholds will be reached, we can more clearly anticipate the timing of specific impacts on society and ecosystems.”